Tony Awards 2018 Play Winners Predictions

‘Harry Potter and the Cursed Child’ and ‘Angels in America’

Manuel Harlan; Brinkhoff & Mögenburg

Want a sneak peek at the Tony results before Sunday night? While we can’t get ahead of the vote totals in advance, we can make some reasonable estimates using just math.

Every year, I predict the Tony Award winners using the results of other theater awards, the list of categories each show was nominated in, and critic predictions from around the internet. I weight each of these factors by how well they’ve predicted the Tony Awards in each category in previous years, and then apply those weights to this year’s nominees to determine the chance each one will win.

When I performed these calculations for the 2018 Oscars, my model made 20 correct picks across 21 categories. But there’s no guarantee that the model fares as well for this year’s Tony Awards: these are percentages, after all, and upsets do happen. And that’s what could make Sunday night so exciting.

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